Plastic waste in Nairobi and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz might seem worlds apart. But they’re increasingly connected.
The plastic supply chain was once viewed primarily as a sustainability challenge however it is increasingly becoming a geopolitical one too. Ongoing global conflict, such as in the Middle East, have disrupted access to raw materials and key trade exposing the vulnerability of global plastic supply chains. At the same time, tightening sustainability requirements are increasing the demand for recycled alternatives. Mr. Green Africa demonstrates how local circular economies can offer solutions by turning locally collected plastic waste into high-quality recycled raw plastic materials, reducing reliance on imported virgin materials and building more resilient supply chains.
Why Plastic Supply Is at Risk
Global plastic supply chains are vulnerable to disruption because virgin plastic production is concentrated in a small number of regions and relies heavily on international trade. Most virgin plastic is made using chemicals derived from crude oil and natural gas, giving the Middle East a major role in global production as these resources are abundant and relatively inexpensive in the region . In 2025, the Middle East exported 18.7 million tonnes of polyethylene, accounting for 43% of global exports and making it the world’s largest exporting region for the material.
This makes the Strait of Hormuz particularly significant, with an estimated $20–25 billion of petrochemical products, including polyethylene, passing through the Strait annually. The combination of disruptions to regional production and restrictions on this critical trade route are tightening global supply and driving up chemical prices. ICIS data indicates that prices for key petrochemical building blocks have risen at their fastest pace since 2007, with consequences rippling through the plastics value chain.
This is not the first time that disruptions at key ports have exposed the vulnerability of global supply chains to disruptions.When the Suez Canal was blocked in 2021, polyethylene shipments from the Middle East were delayed, which added further pressure to plastics markets. More recently, disruption in the Red Sea has again diverted vessels away from the Suez Canal, increasing freight costs and disrupting polyethylene and polypropylene trade flows. Together, these events demonstrate how dependence on a small number of production hubs and shipping routes can leave global plastic supply chains exposed to disruption.
Alongside these geopolitical constraints is mounting regulatory pressure. Governments and industry bodies are introducing stricter requirements around recyclability, packaging waste and extended producer responsibility. The EU's Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation began being applied in August 2026. It will introduce mandatory recycled-content requirements from 2030, including 35% recycled content for many forms of plastic packaging. Together, the pressures of the war and environmental policy stringency are strengthening the case for reducing dependence on imported virgin materials and developing more secure decentralised sources of recycled plastic.
Waste as Raw Material
Mr Green Africa does just that. Rather than relying solely on virgin resin produced through geographically concentrated petrochemical supply chains, it provides manufacturers with a locally sourced alternative. The company formalises the waste value chain by purchasing post-consumer plastic from informal waste collectors, processing it into high-quality post-consumer recycled material and supplying it to manufacturers.
This model formalises the supply chain at both ends. At its source, Mr Green Africa integrates waste workers and micro-entrepreneurs into a more formal and responsible collection network. An estimated 15 to 20 million people globally depend on informal waste collection for their livelihood. Yet without formal employment, wastepreneurs often face exploitation from traders who underpay them or refuse to purchase collected materials entirely. Mr Green Africa’s model creates a reliable stream of locally recovered material and jobs. At the other end, that material can be processed into recycled plastic for packaging manufacturers and re-enter supply chains through a decentralised model. This reduces reliance on globally concentrated sources of virgin plastic. At the same time it also reduces the environmental pressures associated with water-intensive virgin plastic production and prevents poorly managed plastic waste from entering waterways. Consequently, with disruption to virgin resin supply narrowing the price gap between virgin and recycled grades, the environmental case for circular plastics is increasingly accompanied by a supply-security case.
Proving It Works at Scale
Crucially, Mr Green Africa is demonstrating that a locally rooted circular supply chain can operate at both scale and quality. In 2025, the company expanded its processing capacity to 20,000 tonnes per year. It also became the first recycler in East Africa capable of producing food-grade rPET, opening new commercial opportunities with major consumer goods brands seeking high-quality, traceable recycled materials.
This scale is already translating into tangible impact: 4,526 tonnes of plastic waste were collected and 3,257 tonnes of recycled plastic sold, supported by a supplier network spanning 38 Kenyan counties. Growth has also been accompanied by a focus on responsible sourcing. Through its partnership with The Circulate Initiative, supported by the Coca-Cola Foundation and IKEA Foundation, Mr Green Africa is helping establish standards that improve conditions for informal waste workers. Together, these achievements show how strengthening local recycling infrastructure can simultaneously create a more resilient source of materials, reduce plastic waste and generate greater value within local economies.
At a time when geopolitical disruption is exposing the risks of concentrated global supply chains and regulation is increasing demand for recycled content, Mr Green Africa’s model takes on a new significance. By keeping plastic in circulation and reducing reliance on virgin materials, circularity can reduce pressure on our planet's water systems and global supply chains alike. It is not only a means of tackling plastic pollution, but a way to strengthen material security, create local economic opportunity and build greater resilience.
References
S&P Global Commodity Insights. 2025. "Global Polyethylene Trade Flow and Supply Chain Outlook 2025." S&P Global. https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/blogs/petrochemicals/global-polyethylene-trade-outlook-2025.
U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2024. "World Oil Transit Chokepoints: Strait of Hormuz Petrochemical Trade." U.S. EIA. https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/regions-of-interest/Strait_of_Hormuz.pdf.
ICIS. 2025. "Global Petrochemical Index: Price Volatility and Supply Chain Disruptions." ICIS Market Intelligence. https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/global-petrochemical-price-index-analysis.
S&P Global Market Intelligence. 2024. "Red Sea Shipping Disruptions and the Reshaping of Global Plastics Trade Flows." S&P Global. https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/red-sea-disruptions-plastics-trade-flows.html.
European Parliament and Council of the European Union. 2026. "Regulation (EU) 2026/1820 on Packaging and Packaging Waste." Official Journal of the European Union. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32026R1820.
International Labour Organization and WIEGO. 2022. "Waste Pickers and the Global Circular Economy: Livelihoods, Formalization, and Social Protection." ILO. https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/green-jobs/publications/waste-pickers-circular-economy.pdf.
The Circulate Initiative. n.d. "Responsible Sourcing Framework for Recycled Plastics in Emerging Markets." The Circulate Initiative. Accessed September 28, 2026. https://www.thecirculateinitiative.org/responsible-sourcing-framework.
Water Unite. n.d. "Annual Impact Report 2025." Water Unite. https://www.waterunite.org/site_files/7323/upload_files/Water%20Unite%20Annual%20Impact%20Report%20-%202025.1.pdf?dl=1.